Thursday, February 5, 2009

Funding and the Advance of Technology


When it comes to technologies like wind and solar power, many people feel they are a waste of time and money. Without government subsidies, wind and solar could not compete. Wind and sun are inconsistent. The amount of power they give goes up and down, even stops altogether. Much of today's wind mill fleet is sitting doing nothing because there is not enough money and personal to fix them. And of course, coal is cheaper. The other so called green technologies come with similar problems. Who wants a $100,000 electric car that goes 200 miles on a charge? Who wants to wait hours to refuel when a stop at the pump takes a few minutes? Why is the government wasting money on ideas that just don't work?

But consider this; Toyota and Honda both brought out hybrids in 2000. All the extra equipment added thousands of dollars to each car. Neither company could afford to pass all of the expense on to the public. People would not buy a hybrid at that price. so, Honda and Toyota made less money on hybrids. Each year the cost of a hybrid car becomes less expensive to build. But still today in 2009, Toyota makes lower profit on hybrid than on standard models. What a bunch of idiots. Except, Japan has taken a larger and larger share of the American car market since the 1960's. Toyota has become the world’s number one automaker. Auto makers don’t have to pay lip service to liberal voters. Why would a successful money hungry company waste money on an idiot idea that only hippie tree huggers want?

The reason is, Toyota expects to be in business longer than the next ten years. Japan is kicking our ass because they plan for the long haul. Nobody wins with yesterday’s technology. Victory requires constant innovation. This work can not take place in a lab. You have move a product for true advancement. A sputtering mess the product might be, but only the market place will tell you how to improve it. Only a market product will pay for the enormous cost of making the product competitive. Coming up with an entirely new way of doing things takes decades. There are no shortcuts. If you don't pay the price, you fall by the wayside. American automakers appear to be doing just that. (This isn't my opinion. Read Newsweek, Time, The Economist.) Whether the big three fail or not, their lack of innovation will cost them. More than it already has.

Toyota did not have to spend a billions on the hybrid. The hybrid would have come out without them. They could have waited till some other company brought out the hybrid,let that company spend billions of dollars, steal their ideas, and put out their own hybrid without going through the unprofitable years. But then that car company would have all the research, all the technicians, the labs, the factories. That company would have the loyal costumers who had been driving one of that companies hybrids for years. Toyota had to get their hybrids out first. Toyota had to deliver a product to the market, ready or not, so they could capture the market.

An all electric vehicle may not be practical right now. Is that a good reason to go on being oil dependent on often hostile foreign nations that pay no American taxes and create no American jobs? Is that a good reason to plan for more of the same for decades to come. Toyota did not go broke funding the development of batteries and electric engines and neither would we. Japan developed its small hybrid fleet by letting its large gasoline fleet pay for it. We should do the same.

Right now much American coal is mined by blasting the tops off of mountains. This chokes rivers and streams with dust that fall for miles around. If the rock over top of the coal is acid the dust from the blasting is too. Hundreds of money producing rivers and streams have been dammed up or poisoned by dust. Hundreds of miles of money making farms and parks have been acidified by mountain top removal. (and if you live on the east coast you likely have eaten poisoned fish or farm food from the coal area or the ocean near it.) Once mined, coal ore is taken to plants where it is turned into usable coal with harsh chemicals. The unwanted leavings of this process are left in giant open air tailing ponds. As we are now aware, these tailing ponds are not very secure and can spill into the country side. When the coal slurry retaining wall broke in Tennessee miles of farm land, rivers, lakes, parks were contaminated for years to come. Homes, schools, and businesses destroyed. The cost to the American economy is enormous. Does a 30% subsidy for wind and solar power seem so bad in that light. Only so much can be done to clean coal. If we stop mountain top removal and force the coal industry to better manage their waste, the cost of mining and refining coal goes up. A so called clean coal plant costs more than an old coal plant and is not so clean. An old coal plant shoots deadly pollutants out of its stack and into the air where it poisons the economy. Clean coal puts many, but not all, of these poisons into the fly ash. The old fly ash could be sold for many industrial purposes. Fly ash from a 'clean' coal plant is hazardous waste. There is no way to dispose of it without polluting something. Coal will always be dirty.

The coal industry and its supporters would have you believe it is all about money. They are right. We lose money from the damage done to our economy by the coal industry. We lose money making something that will never be clean cleaner. We lose money subsidizing alternative energy. All choices cost. Making coal cleaner and continuing to subsidize alternatives is the choice that costs us the least and the choice that makes us money in the long run.

The cost of wind power has gone down by 80%. Solar power has done even better. These amazing reductions in price came about because of government funded research. It is insane to cut off the funding when we are so close to the goal of not needing a subsidy. There is nothing wrong with solar and wind that continued funding won't fix. For every problem I have heard a dozen solutions. None of those solutions have yet become economical but one of them will. The more funding we give the quicker the solution will be found.

Coal produces nearly half of the United States electricity. This can not be changed overnight. It will take Toyota decades to switch over to all electric vehicles. It will take us decades to get rid of coal. Let us start now.

For too long environmentalists have been the butt of stupid jokes. We have been called tree huggers, dreamers, and idiots. New ways of doing things need to be researched and funded. No one company can afford to do all the work so the government has to pay. Just like they helped paid for the development of the submarine, radar, television, satellites, the phone system, computers, the internet, and just about everything we take for granted today. The people who are telling you that the new technology will never work are the dreamers. They long for a beautiful simple past that never existed. They want to hold things still in an ever changing world. They said man would never fly. They advised people not to invest in telephones and computers. We need a new way of doing things, not to save the trees and flowers and all the cute little bunnies but to save ourselves. We need to do it for the same reasons that Toyota made the hybrid, to make ourselves stronger, to ensure our future, and to make a ton of money. If you are one of the people who thinks we can keep doing the same things over and over without change, you need to get the hell out of the way and stop hurting America.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Global Warming and the Cold Winter

This winter I was working outside. It was so warm, I had to take off my coat . I had a light fall jacket I had on underneath. But soon that was too hot. Well I thought, I guess this winter is not cold after all. What do you mean I am insane? Who cares if the it has been dipping below -30? Why does it matter that the cold lasted for months and the warming has been here a few days? It is warm now. So the cold never happened.

I have had to hear a lot about global warming being garbage because of how cold it is. I've heard it every cold winter for the past twenty years. The message is clear. One cold winter makes years of rising temperatures magically go away. So five days of warm weather magically makes a cold winter go away. Logically it follows. What is the difference?

Of course there is no difference. Both are insane! Well there is one difference. I do not believe that this winter was warm. Five days do not make a winter. Yet millions believe one cold winter disproves global warming.

Imagine the sun itself heating up. Imagine it expanded into a huge red giant and swallowed mercury and Venus. Imagine the oceans could boil off and all life dies. This would still not stop the temperature from going up and down. There will always be colds years. There will always be warm years. There will be cold months in hot years. There will be hot days in cold months. It is called weather!

There are two different words for what it is like outside, weather and climate. Climate is very stable and predictable. Climate stays the same for centuries. If it does change, it does so slowly, not by one or two degrees in a year but by a piece of a degree in a decade. Weather changes all the time. It can go from ten degrees above normal to ten degrees below normal in one day.1 This is why we hate our weather man.

In 1988 time magazine ran a cover with a picture of the Earth melting. This was when global warming first came to the attention of Joe Public. In the twenty years since at least fifteen of those years were above the old average. The general trend is for those years to get hotter and hotter. To to put it another way, for the last twenty years there has been a warming. This warming has taken place in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, all of the oceans, and Antarctica too.2 This means this warming has been global.


Most important of all, this means the scientists predicting global warming have been right for twenty years. I think twenty years in more than a coincidence. I know a guy who has been making money betting on baseball for twenty years. He ain't just just lucky. Twenty years is a hell of a record. If he wants to tell me his picks, I'm going to have to bet them. I am betting on the climate scientists that have been right for twenty years too.

It is one thing to arguing against global warming continuing. It one thing to argue against global warming being man made. But how can you argue that global warming has not happened. The temperature has gone up, so it happened. It is like arguing plants don't grow in dirt and water isn't wet.

Global warming, so far, is list of recorded facts, not the opinion of scientists. For every city in US the number of days in a year over 90 Fahrenheit has gone up. The number of days in a year over 100 Fahrenheit has gone up. Global warming is recorded in the spread of the pine beetle. It is recorded in the number of species moving toward the poles. It is recorded in the rise in deaths due to heat stroke, the melting of glaciers all around the world, the early arrival of spring, and the delay of winter. Global warming is proven by the gradual rising of the average yearly temperature all around the world. And that is the very definition of global warming.

However it got here and whether or not it lasts, Global warming of the last half a century is not opinion. It is a mountain of unbiased, unchangeable, recorded facts entered in to permanent public record for all to see. One cold winter does not change that.


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1 Don't tell me it can't change twenty degrees in one day. I've seen it twice in my forty six years.

2 You might have heard that it has gotten colder in Antarctica. No. As a whole it has gotten warmer in the antarctic. It was reported in the media that East Antarctica has been cooling. Because of bad reporting, This has come out as the entire antarctic continent getting cooler. But for years several scientist have made it clear Antarctica as a whole has been warming. The new data shows that even East Antarctica has been warming. (though just)

Global warming, not North America warming, not European warming, not any particular spot on the earth warming. Parts of England have cooled also. But temperature in the United Kingdom have gone up over the whole. There is no large area of the planet that has not gone up in temperature. Only tiny isolated areas have got cooler. The rest has warmed. We have globally warmed. Isolated places and times can be ignored. Focus on the big picture

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Wind power

Wind, Solar, & Technology

There are many problems with wind turbines. Most locations are not windy enough. Windy areas are not always close to anything that needs power. Conventional wind farms take up a lot of area. They need to be placed in areas of low population. This means miles of power lines between the wind farm and the city that uses the power. Stringing a new line is extremely expensive at the best of times. Court battles over right of way can balloon these costs out of control and delay a project for years. Every mile of power line loses energy. If the line is too long, most of the power will be lost before it reaches the point of use.

Wind blows when it wants to. In strong winds, power can be generated in excess of what is needed. There are long periods where the power generated is less than what is needed. Right now, there is no technology that can cheaply store excess wind power and release it in time of need. For now, when wind turbines slow, the missing power must be made up from fossil fuel and nuclear power plants.

Wind power may never become practical in all areas of the country. It is not the only source of power this is true for. Coal fired plants are not much used outside of coal country. Oil, coal, and hydro dams have been competing to fill our needs for over one hundred years. We have added nuclear and natural gas in the last few decades. Now we are adding wind, solar, and other renewable sources. The grid does not care where the power came from. No one source has ever provided all the power. No one source ever will. Where wind blows strong and steady, there is a place for wind turbines.

Current wind farms take up only 2% of the land they sit on. This includes not just the turbines, but access roads, controlling stations... etc. In the east, it can be difficult to find a large area of land with lots of people nearby. But in the rest of the country, most cities are surrounded by farm land. There is plenty of land for wind turbines.

Power lines do not need to be strung from the wind farm to the point of use. They need to be strung to the nearest power lines. Power lines already run out into the country side. Often only a few miles of extra miles of lines need be added. As the price of oil continues to rise, and it will, the expense of wind farms and the length of the power lines will become less of an issue.

Wind power may blow from too much to not enough, but there is no need to wait for a cheap method of storing power. The simple solution is to use the excess power for something you do not have to run all the time. People are using excess wind and solar power to create hydrogen. When the wind is not enough, they burn the hydrogen. Other uses could include waste treatment, desalination plants. or pumping water. Anything that can be easily turned of and one is a candidate. Until these plants are set up, we may have to put up with a coal or oil plant making up any shortfall. This may not stop us from using up fossil fuel, but it does slow down our use. Is making oil last longer a bad thing? We need oil, not just for fuel, but also for lubricant, fertilizer, road construction, plastics, and a host of other uses. Anything that delays the end of fossil fuels is a good thing.



Here is a few links that show off some of the technologies/solutions I discussed


Solar hydrogen home Michael Strizki
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEdQRVQtffw
Eco Tech: Building Green: hydrogen (more mike)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IV9-V8XtRNo&feature=related


Eco Tech: Powering Up: Wind Power
roof top helix wind genorator
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJXzhFDPM7M&feature=related


new type of solar cells
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXru5GhB3Uk&feature=related

Saturday, May 3, 2008

Blog One: THE TRUTH

The Need for Honesty on a Dishonest net

In most blogs you will find family pictures and personal diaries. Maybe there might be poetry or baseball scores or as much as the writer can find out about Mary Tyler Moore. This is not one of those blogs. In this blog I will attempt to tell the truth.
Well now I’ve done it. What is truth? Why do I think I know more about truth than everyone else? Why do I have such a desperate need to tell the truth? And who the hell do I think I am?

What is truth? It is easier to say what truth is not. Truth is not lies. Truth is not belief either. Truth is not opinion, no matter how heart felt. Truth is not tradition. Truth is not popular. (or unpopular) Truth is not consensus. Truth has no agenda. The Truth is not fear. Truth does not shout. The truth is not mostly right. The truth is not sort of like that. Truth rarely comes from an angry person’s mouth. Nor does truth regularly issue from the mouth of a zealot.

I do not know that I know more about truth than everyone else. But I do know, I want to know more about truth than most people. I am tired of hearing from people who do not love truth. All I am is a man who loves truth and wants to see more of it on the world wide web.

If I tell John that Beverly is cheating on him, it better not be because I heard it somewhere or because I thought I saw her with someone else. If Beverly has not cheated on John, I am just hurting the both of them. Don't repeat what other people say. Who knows why they said it. Maybe they want to break them up. Don't tell people what you thought you saw. If you did not clearly see her face, you didn't see her. If they weren't making out, a girl can be out in public with a guy. This isn't the middle ages. And do you even know what all her brothers look like? If you are going to say something important, make sure it is true. Save the opinions and guesses for discussing music and fashion.

I hope, most of us know saying black people are all criminals in wrong. I hope people know that saying women are stupid is hurtful. These vile lies cause life long suffering to millions. But all untruth hurts people. Bad medical advice kills people. Bad handyman advice can destroy your home. Bad advice can kill a technology that we need, set races and religions against each other, end marriages, and destroy a childhood. Wrong opinions can lead an entire country down the wrong path for ten or twenty years. All untruth hurts people.

I can not claim I will always tell the truth. Untruth is more than lies. I can truly believe things that are wrong. I can be misinformed. But I can try as hard as I can to tell the truth. I can keep mere opinions out of my blog. I can check my facts. I can limit myself to topics I know something about.

I make a promise. If I make any statement that you can prove is wrong, I will remove it. If it is a big enough mistake, I will print an apology. You can not dedicate yourself to truth if you can not admit you were wrong.


Here is a list of what I think you need to do to tell the truth.

1. Don’t lie
2. Be aware of your bias views and prejudice and try to get rid of them.
3. Don't talk about what you don't understand.
4. Don’t just repeat what other people say and hope that they got it right
5. Check your facts.
6. If you find yourself getting emotional, either calm down or stop talking.
7. Be Polite. Don't resort to swearing. Don't be condescending.
8. Don’t take shortcuts you don’t have to.
9. Don't assume the listener knows something.
10. Don’t make approximations you don’t have to
11. Be careful how you word something. Is there a better word? Does the word lead to confusion? Are you using it correctly?
12. If you want to state your opinion, state your opinion. But state it as your opinion. And make sure it is clear it is only your opinion. Do Not State It As Fact.
13. If you feel certain of something, but can not find confirmation and still want to use it. State your lack of confirmation.
14. If you are only fairly certain of something, but can not find confirmation-
State your lack of confirmation and your uncertainty.
15. Remember that you might be wrong.
16. Be prepared to admit you are wrong, when you realize that you are.
17. Admit you were wrong.
18. Look over you work. Did you say everything you needed to say? Stop talking. The longer you go on, the more likely you are to lose focus and drift into non-truth.




Occasionally I may seem to be repeating myself with something I said in another blog. This because I don't want any one blog to be too long. I do not want to split my focus by talking about too many aspects of the topic at once. To allow each blog to stand on its own, I will have to repeat some things. I plan to write a blog titled, "How To Tell The Truth." I'm going to start it with the list above and go into why I choose each step in more detail. Many people won't need or want the explanations so I put them in a different blog. Usually the repetitions will be short and it will be obvious when I get to the new stuff. Just skip ahead a bit if you have to. There really is something new being said

I am Ivan, and as far as I know, this is the truth.